MaintainerPulse
temporal prediction of dependency maintenance riskweb3 ethereum/web3.py ● elevated
47%
no release in the next 12 months
54%
new issues will go unanswered (30 days)
100%
maintainer activity collapse within 12 months
62%
chance of a release within 12 months (survival model)
Model risk over time
calibrated P(no release next 12mo) at each historical monthly snapshot
Repository activity, last 36 months
pushes
issues
PyPI release
What drives this score
TreeSHAP contributions; raises risk /
lowers risk
Survival curve
P(still no release) m months ahead, discrete-time hazard model
What if? — poke the model
drag a signal and the deployed models rescore this package live (implied signals move together — two years without a release also zeroes "releases, last 12mo"). The needle tracks the activity-collapse model, a logistic regression: monotone by construction, so it responds smoothly to counterfactuals where the tree models step.
maintainer activity collapse, 12mo
In plain words
- no pushes to the repository in 6 months
- bus factor: one person makes 82% of pushes
- only 0% of recent issues get a response in 30 days
- healthy cadence: 7 releases in the last year
Maintained alternatives
similar packages with low predicted risk; ranked by summary similarity
blended with shared-dependents overlap, validated against known migrations
| package | what it is | similarity | shared dependents | its 12mo risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shiny | A web development framework for Python. | 0.69 | 0 | 6% |
| ollama | The official Python client for Ollama. | 0.67 | 0 | 29% |
| together | The official Python library for the together API | 0.66 | 0 | 0% |
| authlib | The ultimate Python library in building OAuth and OpenID Connect servers and clients. | 0.64 | 0 | 4% |
| panel | The powerful data exploration & web app framework for Python. | 0.62 | 0 | 2% |
Signals at the latest snapshot
| days since last release | 62 | releases, last 12mo | 7 |
| people pushing, last 12mo | 2 | bus factor (top pusher share) | 82% |
| issues opened, last 12mo | 3 | 30-day response rate | 0% |
| stars accumulated | 5523 | open vulns without fix | 0 |
Probabilities are isotonic-calibrated on a held-out validation year and evaluated on future snapshots the models never saw (PR-AUC 0.894, precision@50 = 1.00 on the headline target).